New Total = £1792
Last Report = £1723
Profit = £69
I have not done a single thing for 2 weeks (15th – 29th Jan) – so this profit figure is for 3 Days! and when I decided, 3 days ago, it was time to get my head back in the game I opened up my email, lo and behold another Bingo offer! I had nearly missed it too – it expired on 31st.. OMG, I had so not expected that as I thought the 2 offers in early January (see previous post) were more than I could hope for… so as quick as you like I duly checked the terms and conditions of offer to check it was still the same 1 x wager required and deposited funds to claim the offer.
24 hours later I withdrew my deposit + £48
The balance of profit, £21 was a £10 free gift and 2 x refunds that were due from before 15th January. I never count refunds in my profit figures until they are actually received!
So a great start to the 2013 campaign and a nice step towards that 1st target!
What’s on the cards for this year then? that I don’t know am still enjoying where this journey is taking me without trying to overthink it. Really must get more accounts though as trying not to “hit up” the same Bookies over and over will become more difficult for sure.
I also see from some of the catch up reading I’ve been doing that some of the “easier” offers are now having terms added to them that make it just that little bit less easy to take part, also more worryingly, an offer, that I perhaps fortunately missed, seems to be being reneged on by an Exchange, leaving many who played it out of pocket, some by a “few hundred” - Now while I wouldn’t have played it for full amount anyway as it wasn’t entirely Risk Free and I’m not yet familiar with minimal risk wagering in order to keep the bet +EV (positive Expected Value), I might have been tempted to give it a go for the smallest amount in order to get a feel for these type offers.. hmm so that’s not such a good start
What is semi funny is that I’ve only been gone about a month from the betting exchanges, 2 week break and 2 weeks only playing games not laying off bets, and in my email today I have a “Here’s a free bet, please come back” offer – I’m chuckling a bit as well as being worried (not!) - if I heard that about someone I would think they were a real gambler with a problem.. my only problem is why on earth did I take a whole month off, is making money not that important?
So to kick off I’ve done the first freebet this evening and I’ve underlaid it, it’s for a match tomorrow and it’s also a “refund on lose” offer so I hope I’ve counted the right way! any profits will not show up until next report but as I’ve mentioned this underlaying tactic before I may report on it as side post all on it’s own by way of explaining, to myself as well as any readers why I think, or not, that underlaying has it’s merits.
A few people who see these “refund on lose” offers at a bookie or exchange think that best way to do them is bet on something at High Odds, i.e. more likely to lose, and if it does win, it will win you a nice big amount, and if it loses you get your money back anyway so no loss – this is perhaps not a bad plan, but I prefer to at least make a pound or 2 for my efforts! You should also remember that if the refund is in the form of a freebet token rather than a cash refund you can only realistically expect to recover 80% of the refund which if you have not matched off any of the bet could turn it into a losing bet, i.e. not Risk Free. You should know however that with matched betting it is possible to make a fully matched profit off these type bets (from my experience about 60%) – regardless of if they win/lose just the same as regular ones, the counting is a wee bit different (hence me wondering if I have done this one right) I can’t and won’t explain the maths, all I can say is I love spreadsheets!!
I have conversely bet on something at Low Odds, i.e. more chance of winning the bet, so no refund if it wins – but I have weighted it, underlaid it, so that if it does win, as the odds suggest, I have the bigger profit – 89%, but if it loses I still should get 12% of the offer amount! let’s see shall we?
I think later today I”ll try to analyse some of my past figure to see what difference it would have made to existing profit if I took this stance every time!